According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of a US recession in 2025 has sharply decreased to 38%, marking a 33 percentage point drop since late April. This reduction in recession risk signals improved economic outlooks, which typically support risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Traders may interpret this trend as a bullish signal for Bitcoin and altcoins, as lower recession odds often lead to increased liquidity and appetite for higher-yield assets (source: @KobeissiLetter, @Kalshi). Crypto market participants should monitor macroeconomic data closely for continued shifts in sentiment.